Project Title: Event-Studies in Macroeconomics and Finance: Identification, Estimation and Inference on the Causal Effects of Policy Announcements.
Principal Investigator: Alessandro Casini. The project is funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MIUR).
Total funding: €1,023,750.00.
Duration: 2026-2031.
Short Description: The project focuses on the identification and inference about the causal effects of policy announcements or event news on the real economy. A recent fast growing literature in empirical macroeconomics has begun to explore identification strategies and econometric methods that are popular in microeconometrics (e.g., event-studies) and apply them to estimate the causal effects of some policy announcement or event to macroeconomic and financial variables. The research proposed here seeks to overcome limitations inhibiting the practical use and credibility of event-studies and related methodologies considered recently by macroeconomists and financial economists.
Research arising from this project has been presented at invited seminars and conferences at leading institutions, including Bank of Italy, Boston University, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, NBER Summer Institute, NBER/NSF Time Series Conference, Oxford University, Princeton University, University College London, University of Bristol, University of California Los Angeles, University of California Riverside, University of California Santa Cruz, University of Cambridge, University of Colorado Boulder and University of Michigan.
Conference organization: Rome Conference on Macroeconometrics and Time Series, 19-20 September 2026. Venue: Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance. Program (to be announced).
Post-Doc: TBA.
Papers
“Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects in Time Series“
by Alessandro Casini, Adam McCloskey, Luca Rolla and Raimondo Pala.
October 2025. arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.12985. Supplement. Replication code.
Financial support from Italian Ministry of University and Research under FIS3 Starting Grant FIS-2024-02854 (Casini), EIEF through 2022 EIEF Grant (Casini) and from NSF under Grant SES-2341730 (McCloskey).
“Identification, Estimation and Inference in High-Frequency Event Study Regressions“
by Alessandro Casini and Adam McCloskey.
November 2025. arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.15667. Replication code.
Financial support from Italian Ministry of University and Research under FIS3 Starting Grant FIS-2024-02854 (Casini) and from NSF under Grant SES-2341730 (McCloskey).